Finis Germaniae: grim demographic future of ethnic Germans

_ Yuri Kofner, economist, MIWI Institute for Market Integration and Economic Policy. Munich, 20 November 2023.

Introduction and methodology

Due to replacement migration and unsustainable fertility the autochthonous populations of German-speaking Central Europe experience a dramatic demographic decline. This analytical note forecasts the expected points in the future, when the ethnic Germans will have completely disappeared in Germany, Austria and Switzerland, i.e., have completely emigrated from those countries and died out there. Ethnic Germans are labelled in the official statistics as “persons without migration background”. [1]

Furthermore, this analytical note will estimate the preceding points in time when migrants and their descendants will make up the majority (over 50 percent) of the populations of these countries. This category is labelled “persons with migration background” in the official statistics.

Since the author used a very simplistic approach of extrapolating the population trends of Germany, Austria and Switzerland between 2012 and 2022 into the future, the results of this analytical note should not be regarded as a definitive research conclusion, but rather as an indicator of likely future trends and as an invitation to likeminded researchers to forecast the demographic future of the autochthonous European peoples using sophisticated population models based on a comprehensive database.

Germany

With a fertility rate of 1.4 for autochthones compared to 2.4 for Muslims living in Europe,[2] it is clear that there is an imbalance in Germany’s population structure. Foreign citizens living in Germany have a fertility rate of 1.9.[3]

Since former Chancellor Angela Merkel took office in 2005, more than 582,000 “citizens without migration background” have net left the country.[4] According to surveys by the Federal Institute for Population Research, the majority of these are very well-educated academics of prime working age.[5]

Paradoxically, Germany’s much-discussed skills shortage could have been easily solved without this emigration, as there were 533,000 job vacancies in 2022.[6]

At the same time, Germany recorded a net increase of over 612,000 foreign immigrants per year between 2012 and 2022, resulting in a total increase of 6.7 million foreign citizens. Of these, over 294,000 asylum seekers have come to Germany every year since 2015, and a total of 2.8 million asylum seekers have immigrated to the federal republic since 2012.[7]

These figures turn the alleged “conspiracy theory” of replacement migration and the Great Replacement[8] into empirical fact, especially when one considers that already in 2022 ethnic Germans made up only 73 per cent of the population. Between 1960 and 2022, the number of autochthonous Germans decreased by 18 percent (12.8 million): from 72.1 to only 59.3 million people.[9]

In view of the aforementioned fertility gap and migration disbalance, citizens with a migrant background will make up the absolute majority of the population in the Federal Republic of Germany as early as 2052, i.e., within the next 30 years. If current trends continue, ethnic Germans will disappear completely in less than a century – by 2116 – i.e., they will have emigrated or died out.

Austria

Given the demographic trends, the future of the Alpine republic is no less uncertain. With a fertility rate of 1.35 among autochthonous Austrians[10] and a continuous net emigration of almost 5,000 citizens per year since 2012, the population development is worrying.

Since the SPÖ federal government under Federal Chancellor Werner Faymann in 2009, over 75,000 Austrian citizens have left the country permanently, while at the same time over 68,0000 foreigners have net immigrated to Austria every year, with a total increase of almost 843,000 foreign immigrants since 2009.[11]

These figures indicate an ongoing replacement migration which, if it continues unabated, could lead to citizens with a migrant background making up the majority of the population by 2055.[12]

Under these circumstances, the autochthonous Austrians would therefore have completely died out or emigrated in exactly 100 years – i.e., in the year 2124.

In this context, the idea of an “Alpine turnaround” as a republic of retreat and collection for ethnic Germans, as proposed by the right-wing author Martin Sellner,[13] is seen as only realisable under a successful and lasting FPÖ government under Herbert Kickl.

Switzerland

Switzerland’s demographic landscape is both fascinating and ambivalent. With a worryingly low fertility rate of 1.29[14] and an annual net emigration trend of over 5,500 Swiss nationals since 2012,[15] the country is experiencing a significant loss of native-born population.

Already, one in four Swiss have a migrant background, and based on current trends, this group will form the majority by 2046, while by 2160 the last native-born Swiss could have disappeared.[16]

Interestingly, however, it turns out that 74 per cent of immigrants to Switzerland come from Europe and North America, in particular ethnic Germans and Austrians, who see the country as a place of opportunity and retreat due to its low taxes, developed infrastructure and high quality of life. As a result, ethnic Swiss, Europeans and North Americans actually still make up 94 per cent of the Swiss population.[17]

Given these figures, the descendants of Europeans might not die out in Switzerland until the year 3322, while “non-Westerners” would not gain the demographic majority until the year 2627.

These considerations raise the question of whether, under the current circumstances, an identitarian “Alpine turnaround” in and from Switzerland might appear more realistic than from Austria.

East Germany

The right-wing concept of gathering and later metapolitical “Reconquista” appears to be feasible not only in Switzerland, but also in eastern Germany.[18]

Under the current demographic parameters, citizens with a migration background will form the majority of the population in the Western German states (including Berlin) by 2040, i.e., in just 17 years. However, there is a striking contrast in East Germany, where ethnic Germans will still make up almost 80 per cent of the population by this time.[19]

While in West Germany the last Germans will have disappeared by 2089, in East Germany the autochthones will still make up half of the population.

These figures could serve as a promising starting point for East German AfD state governments to successfully implement the necessary drastic measures in the areas of migration and family policy.

Conclusion

To summarise: if the adverse demographic factors of exchange migration and the fertility gap continue on their current scale, the ethnic Germans in Germany and Austria will have emigrated completely or died out within the next 100 years. Only Switzerland and possibly East Germany could retain their historical ethno-cultural identity for longer. The results of this analysis emphasise the urgency of a timely democratic right-wing government takeover that relies on drastic measures such as a “welcome culture for children”, a no-way migration policy and a comprehensive remigration agenda to save the future of the German people.

Sources

[1] In distinguishing between “ethnic Germans” or “persons without a migration background” and “persons with a migration background”, the author does not make any judgemental differentiation that goes beyond Section 116(1) of the Basic Law and Section 6(1) of the Federal Expellees Act. The author is himself a Russian-German with Jewish roots.

[2] Stonawski M. et al. (2015). Fertility patterns of native and migrant Muslims in Europe. IIASA. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/277562732_Fertility_Patterns_of_Native_and_Migrant_Muslims_in_Europe

[3] Destatis (2023). Geburtenziffer 2022 auf 1,46 Kinder je Frau gesunken. URL: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2023/07/PD23_290_12.html

[4] Destatis (2023a). Wanderungen zwischen Deutschland und dem Ausland 1991 bis 2021. URL: https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Wanderungen/Tabellen/wanderungen-alle.html

[5] Erlinghagen M. et al. (2021). The Global Lives of German Migrants. Consequences of International Migration Across the Life Course. BIB. URL: https://www.bib.bund.de/Publikation/2021/The-Global-Lives-of-German-Migrants.html;jsessionid=3E55D3CE517EBD1AD4CE12B0C57B02DA.intranet661?nn=1210466

[6] Köhne-Finster S., Tiedemann J. (2023). KOFA Kompakt 01/2023: Fachkräftereport Dezember 2022 – Fachkräftelücke trotz leichtem Rückgang auf hohem Niveau. IW Köln. URL: https://www.iwkoeln.de/studien/sabine-koehne-finster-jurek-tiedemann-fachkraeftereport-dezember-2022-fachkraefteluecke-trotz-leichtem-rueckgang-auf-hohem-niveau.html

[7] BAMF. (2023). Anzahl der Asylanträge (insgesamt) in Deutschland von 1995 bis 2023. URL: https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/76095/umfrage/asylantraege-insgesamt-in-deutschland-seit-1995/

[8] Camus R. (2011). Le Grand Remplacement. Reinharc. Paris.

[9] Destatis (2023b). Bevölkerung ohne und mit Migrationshintergrund (im engeren Sinn) in Deutschland bis 2022. URL:  https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/75231/umfrage/bevoelkerung-mit-und-ohne-migrationshintergrund-in-deutschland/

[10] Statistik Austria. (2023). Fertilitätsrate in Österreich nach Bundesländern im Jahr 2022. URL: https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/687312/umfrage/fertilitaetsrate-in-oesterreich-nach-bundeslaendern/

[11] Statistik Austria. (2023a). Wanderbewegungen nach und aus Österreich. URL: https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/718036/umfrage/auswanderer-aus-oesterreich-nach-staatsangehoerigkeiten/

[12] Statistik Austria. (2023b). Anteil der Bevölkerung mit Migrationshintergrund in Österreich von 2012 bis 2022. URL: https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/294028/umfrage/bevoelkerungsanteil-mit-migrationshintergrund-in-oesterreich/

[13] Sellner M. (2022). Die Alpenwende? Warum ich in Österreich die größten Chancen sehe. URL: https://t.me/martinsellnervideos/958

[14] Bundesamt für Statistik (Schweiz). (2023). Zusammengefasste Geburtenziffer nach Geschlecht und Staatsangehörigkeitskategorie, 1971-2022. URL: https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/de/home/statistiken/bevoelkerung/geburten-todesfaelle/fruchtbarkeit.assetdetail.27225525.html

[15] Bundesamt für Statistik (Schweiz). (2023a). Anzahl der Auswanderer aus der Schweiz von 2012 bis 2022. Statista. Statista GmbH. Zugriff: 13. November 2023. https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/712938/umfrage/auswanderer-aus-der-schweiz/

[16] Bundesamt für Statistik (Schweiz) (2022b). Anteil der ständigen Wohnbevölkerung mit Migrationshintergrund in der Schweiz von 2013 bis 2021. URL: https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/711756/umfrage/bevoelkerungsanteil-mit-migrationshintergrund-in-der-schweiz/ | Bundesamt für Statistik (Schweiz). (2023c). Ständige ausländische Wohnbevölkerung in der Schweiz nach den zehn wichtigsten Staatsangehörigkeiten am 31. Dezember 2022. URL: https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/293626/umfrage/auslaender-in-der-schweiz-nach-staatsangehoerigkeit/

[17] Bundesamt für Statistik (Schweiz) (2023d). Ein- und Auswanderung der ständigen Wohnbevölkerung nach Staatsangehörigkeit, 2002-2022. URL: https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/de/home/statistiken/bevoelkerung/migration-integration/internationale-wanderung.assetdetail.26565426.html

[18] Sellner M. (2023). Regime Change von rechts. Eine strategische Skizze. URL: https://antaios.de/gesamtverzeichnis-antaios/einzeltitel/181686/regime-change-von-rechts.-eine-strategische-skizze 

[19] Destatis (2023c) Ergebnisse des Mikrozensus. 2005 – 2021. URL: https://www.statistischebibliothek.de/mir/receive/DESerie_mods_00000020