Instead of Mass Migration: How Returning German Expats Could Solve the Skilled Labor Shortage

_ J.C. Kofner, Economist, MIWI Institute. Munich – Steyregg, September 9, 2024. Heimatkurier.

The German economy is suffering from a significant shortage of skilled labor. However, rather than relying on mass migration, economist J.C. Kofner advocates for targeted measures to reclaim expatriated German professionals. He underscores that these highly skilled specialists often leave the country in search of better career opportunities and due to dissatisfaction with the political climate. The AfD is the only party committed to encouraging the return of these professionals through tax breaks and financial incentives.

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Established economists, publicly funded media, and the prevailing political elite agree: recruiting foreign skilled workers is virtually the only solution to Germany’s acute labor shortage. However, this assertion proves untenable upon closer examination. Beyond the severe impacts on national identity, uncontrolled mass migration brings few genuine skilled workers, mainly attracting integration-resistant welfare recipients who are neither willing nor able to make a substantial contribution to the German economy.

The Overlooked Emigration Wave

There is a vast potential of skilled professionals abroad that the political class deliberately ignores: expatriated German professionals. This option is conveniently overlooked for obvious reasons: firstly, due to the elite’s deep-seated aversion to anything German, and secondly, because a serious discussion on this topic would reveal the complete failure of established parties across all political arenas. German skilled workers do not leave the country without reason – and this is not an isolated issue but a massive wave of professionals turning their backs on Germany.

Increasing Numbers of Germans Staying Abroad

Until the era of the Grand Coalition (CDU/SPD), the migration balance of German citizens was positive, meaning more Germans returned to the Federal Republic than left. Since Angela Merkel’s tenure began in 2005, this trend has reversed: between 2005 and 2023, nearly one million Germans (exactly 953,126) permanently left their homeland. By the end of 2022, over 3.1 million Germans were living abroad, primarily in other OECD countries.

Three-Quarters of Emigrants Are Germans Without Migration Background

A comprehensive survey by the Federal Institute for Population Research reveals alarming statistics: nearly three-quarters (73.4%) of emigrants are Germans without a migration background, including 76% with academic degrees. Over two-thirds (68.2%) of those leaving the country are in the prime working age of 20 to 40 years. Overall, 94.5% are of working age. The main reasons for emigration are clear: nearly one in five emigrants (17.4%) cites dissatisfaction with life in Germany, and 57.5% mention better career opportunities abroad. After moving, emigrants typically earn 1,200 euros more per month than before.

The most popular destinations for these emigrants are Switzerland, the USA, Austria, and the United Kingdom – all countries offering better economic prospects than their homeland.

Prioritizing the Return of German Professionals

Before the government continues to rely on foreign immigration, where individuals must first learn German, integrate, and be trained, it would be more sensible to focus on reclaiming its own highly qualified professionals. However, apart from the AfD, no political force seems to take this issue seriously. The AfD has submitted a parliamentary inquiry on the return of German professionals and has even introduced an urgent motion in the Bavarian State Parliament. Under the Bavarian title “Kimm Hoam!” the AfD faction calls for a comprehensive incentive program to encourage the return of expatriated professionals.

Johannes Meier (MdL, AfD), the initiator of the motion, proposes a range of measures to facilitate the return: tax relief, interest-free loans for business start-ups, relocation cost subsidies, training opportunities, and interest-free mortgages for housing are intended to attract German professionals back to the country.

Should even half of the expatriated professionals be persuaded to return, the current shortage of 533,000 job vacancies could be fully resolved. Critical voices may argue that under the current political conditions – with a left-green government, high taxes, excessive bureaucracy, generous social benefits, and biased media – no one would seriously consider returning to Germany. These objections are valid. Yet, it is a mark of political foresight that the AfD is already addressing this pressing issue and proposing concrete solutions.”

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