_ J.C. Kofner, Economist, MIWI Institute for Market Integration and Economic Policy. First published in Heimatkurier. Munich, November 14, 2024.
Review of Endtimes: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration (2023) by Peter Turchin.
Peter Turchin’s Endtimes (2023) is a groundbreaking work that analyzes historical developments and societal instability through the lens of Cliodynamics, a discipline he pioneered. The American-Russian historian and population biologist demonstrates that history can be understood not only qualitatively but also quantitatively, using mathematical methods akin to those employed in econometrics. Over the years, Turchin and his team have collected a vast array of historical datasets and analyzed them through statistical models. His objective is to uncover recurring patterns and causalities that explain societal collapse.
Central to Turchin’s analysis are two recurring factors that push societies to the brink of collapse: first, the impoverishment of the middle and lower classes, which make up the majority of the population; and second, the overproduction of elites, leading to conflicts within this leadership class as young and aspiring elites challenge the established powers. According to Turchin, this combination invariably leads to significant social tensions and, in 80% of cases, to conflicts or even civil wars.
In modern society, Turchin distinguishes between the state, large corporations, and the general population. When economic growth is unevenly distributed, it is typically state and economic elites who benefit, amassing wealth on the backs of the working population. Turchin observed this dynamic most prominently in the United States since the 1980s, where economic gains have increasingly shifted to corporate elites while the share of income for working-class Americans has stagnated or declined. He refers to this phenomenon as the “wealth pump.” Growing inequality and the swelling ranks of elite aspirants intensify conflicts within the elite. Simultaneously, society develops a bloated administrative apparatus, too burdensome for the general population to sustain. Impoverished middle and lower classes become the foot soldiers for a growing circle of discontented elite aspirants. Based on these trends, Turchin predicts a high likelihood of political unrest in the United States during the 2020s.
The greatest value of Turchin’s work lies in its quantitative approach. Indicators such as median wages relative to GDP, trends in real wages and incomes, the inflation-adjusted number of billionaires as a percentage of the population, housing and higher education affordability, and the median wage compared to the top 1% and 0.1% incomes provide an objective, statistically grounded view of the dynamics of social instability.
Although Cliodynamics is a compelling framework and Turchin’s model is widely regarded as useful and accurate, certain aspects warrant critical examination. Turchin admires the “Great Compression,” a period of reduced inequality, which he attributes to the social-democratic policies of New Deal Democrats. However, this perspective on resolving the wealth pump is one-sided, failing to account for more influential factors such as the U.S. victory in World War II and technological innovations. Furthermore, Turchin should have more thoroughly analyzed the role of the central banking system and fiat money as driving forces behind the wealth pump from “bottom to top.”
For policymakers, particularly the right-wing libertarian AfD in Germany, Cliodynamics can serve as a novel science to predict and contextualize future societal developments. Similar trends to those in the U.S. are observable in Germany: declining real incomes, erosion of the middle class, a growing share of ultra-wealthy individuals, the old parties’ obstruction of the rise of young elite aspirants, and mass immigration, which brings an influx of young, discontented men from partially pre-modern cultures. Particularly in Germany, state elites increase their wealth and power at the expense of small and medium-sized enterprises and the working population. This toxic mix could lead to civil unrest unless the AfD swiftly changes these socio-political power dynamics and implements populist-libertarian measures.