_ J.C. Kofner, Economist, MIWI Institute. Munich – Steyregg, August 20, 2024. Heimatkurier.
Germany is grappling with a severe shortage of skilled labor, but rather than relying on mass immigration, economist Jurij Kofner advocates for stronger support for German families. He argues that child poverty and high abortion rates exacerbate the shortage, and that a family-friendly policy is key to addressing the issue. Only through such measures can the nation remain demographically stable and economically successful in the long term.
Germany faces an unprecedented challenge: over 533,000 skilled workers are currently missing from the economy. This dramatic shortfall costs the country between 2.1 and 2.5 percent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) annually. The economic impacts are already being felt, but the future looks even bleaker. Experts predict that by 2040, the skilled labor gap could swell to 3.3 million unfilled positions, leading to a cumulative decline in economic growth of 14 percent throughout the 2020s.
Demographic Crisis Worsens the Situation
The root cause of this shortage is both demographic and economic. Germany’s population is aging rapidly, while fewer and fewer children are being born. Additionally, well-educated Germans in their prime working years are emigrating due to the high tax burden, bureaucracy, and inflation in the country. As real wages and the median wealth of Germans plummet, the country’s income tax burden is the second-highest among OECD nations. Sectors such as social work, education, healthcare, skilled trades, logistics, and IT are particularly hard hit. The machinery and electronics industries are also expected to face significant labor shortages in the medium term.
While the left-wing establishment continues to push mass immigration as the supposed solution, it is clear that this is not a sustainable answer. On the contrary, the notion that mostly uneducated, unassimilated migrants from Africa and the Middle East could fill this gap is proving to be one of the great fallacies of modern Western society.
How Child Poverty and Abortion Worsen the Skilled Labor Shortage
A critical aspect that is deliberately overlooked in the mainstream debate on the skilled labor shortage is child poverty in Germany. This issue is reflected not only in the low birth rate but also in the high number of abortions.
The facts are alarming: Between 1993 and 2021, over 21.3 million babies were born in Germany, with the average Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for German women at just 1.33. In comparison, the birth rate for foreign women in Germany was 1.84. Had the TFR for German women reached the necessary level of 2.1—above the replacement rate—over 12.5 million additional children would have been born during this period. These children would have entered the workforce by 2040, not only offsetting the skilled labor shortage but exceeding it fourfold.
Another critical factor is the high number of abortions. Between 1993 and 2022, over 3.5 million pregnancies were terminated in Germany. If these pregnancies had not been interrupted—except for medically and legally necessary cases—the projected skilled labor gap of 3.3 million jobs by 2040 could theoretically be completely filled by the native population.
The Call for Active Family Policy
Instead of continuing to rely on mass immigration, the German government should urgently pursue an active family policy. Surveys show that while the total fertility rate in Germany is only 1.3 children per woman, women in Germany actually desire between 2 and 2.5 children over their lifetimes. This aligns with the healthy and necessary level to ensure sustainable population reproduction. The government must do everything possible to make it easier for women and men, and families in general, to fulfill their desires for children.
Strengthening the reproduction of the German population is essential to meeting the future demands of the labor market. Fiscal incentives such as direct transfers, maternity benefits, interest-free mortgage loans for homeownership, generous tax exemptions, family income splitting, and a generation-oriented pension reform could provide an effective solution. Improving childcare options is also crucial.
The future of Germany lies in our own hands. It is time to set the course for a demographically stable and economically successful nation—with policies that prioritize the nation’s own people and their reproduction.
For more information on this topic, please refer to the study “Securing skilled labour for Germany: analysis and solutions from the right” (2024).
Originally published in the Austrian magazine “Heimatkurier.”